How close do you think audio technology is to finally replicating a tube amp’s amazing warmth without tubes?

Some manufacturers have come close with pedals that "try" to emulate the warmth of a tube amp, but have all came up with anemic facsimiles. Do you think we’ll ever be able to get rid of the outdated, high-maintenance, cumbersome technology found inside the tube amp? How close are we to replacing tube technology with something that’s cost efficient, durable and a lighter weight, that actually sounds "good"?

there are some effect out there that sound just like the real thing. modeling amps are made by literally taking a sound signal from the real thing and taking out the original signal, leaving just the modifications made to the signal, and putting these directly into the new amps.
spider amps seem to be pretty good, though i have never actually tried one.
anything you can hear can be recorded, processed, and emulated by a modeling amp